:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2024 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2024

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
03/0741Z from Region 3729 (S05W26). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul,
06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 412 km/s at 03/1748Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
03/1530Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/0404Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1192 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 167
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 165/160/155
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 180

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  009/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/20/20